Analyst questions the 'AI demand bubble,' saying cloud giants' revenue revolves around OpenAI and Anthropic
Ed Zitron's article 'The AI Demand Bubble,' currently being debated on Hacker News, claims that most AI revenue at Amazon, Microsoft, and Google comes from just two customers—OpenAI and Anthropic—both of which rely on outside funding
An analysis piece titled 'The AI Demand Bubble,' written by Ed Zitron, author of the Where's Your Ed At blog, is sparking debate in the tech industry after being posted on Hacker News, where it earned 98 points and nearly 100 comments. Its core argument questions how 'real' the AI demand currently visible in the market actually is.
Zitron's first claim is that 73% of AI revenue at the three cloud giants—Amazon, Microsoft, and Google—comes from just two companies: OpenAI and Anthropic. The analyst believes this concentration will only intensify in the coming years. He interprets this to mean that real market demand for AI may not be as broad as many parties advertise, because the existing demand comes from two companies that have raised a combined $77 billion in funding, rather than from ordinary customers paying out of their own pockets.
Second, he points out that if 27% of Google Cloud's revenue in 2026 and 48% in 2027 comes from Anthropic and OpenAI, Google Cloud's growth could stall as soon as next year once those two companies' compute spending is stripped out.
The third point, which forms the heart of the article, is Zitron's view that OpenAI and Anthropic act as channels through which hyperscalers feed revenue back into themselves—whether through capex spending, compute contract guarantees, or direct equity investments. And as long as venture capital and hyperscalers remain able or willing to keep investing, the AI bubble can keep inflating.
That said, a word of caution: this is an analysis piece by a single critical writer. Although Zitron has cited similar figures in an interview with Oligarch Watch, another independent outlet, those numbers have not been confirmed by the companies named. Readers should hear both sides before drawing conclusions.
This debate reflects growing concern that the global AI market may be driven by money circulating within a closed loop. If the bubble truly bursts, it would hit tech stock markets and businesses worldwide that rely on cloud and AI services—including Thai entrepreneurs and investors who hold these stocks or use these services.